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Statistics

Texas Data Center & ERCOT Statistics 2026

45 sourced figures on large loads, queues, peaks, and policy — built for journalists and operators who need a number with a name next to it.

By James Dickey | Updated August 2026

How to use this page

Every number below carries a plain-text source attribution. Prefer queue MW and realized peak demand over multi-year peak forecasts that regulators have already flagged as unreliable. Interconnection interest is not energized load.

Related analysis: 2026 interim charges, property tax & AI infrastructure, data center government affairs.

Peak demand and system scale

  1. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand record cited in mid-2026 large-user materials is 85,508 MW.
    Source: ERCOT, Trending Topic: New Batch Connection Process for Large Electricity Users, June 18, 2026
  2. Between 2000 and 2024, ERCOT peak demand grew from about 58 GW to about 84 GW (roughly 1–2% average annual growth over that historical period).
    Source: Belfer Center, Data Centers and Large-Scale Electric Growth (Texas–Virginia comparison), 2026
  3. As of 2025, Texas data centers demanded just under 8 GW of power at their peak, against a state-grid peak demand figure of about 94 GW in contemporaneous ERCOT-linked reporting.
    Source: Belfer Center, 2026; ERCOT figures as reported via The Monitor, Jan 2026
  4. ERCOT manages about 90% of the load on the Texas power grid.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  5. ERCOT defines large flexible load (LFL) as facilities with expected peak demand capacity of 75 MW or more.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024 (citing ERCOT LFL definition)

Large-load interconnection queue

  1. By November 2025, ERCOT was tracking about 226 GW of large loads seeking interconnection, up from about 63 GW in December 2024.
    Source: ERCOT Board Item 16.2, System Planning and Weatherization Update, Dec 2, 2025
  2. Of that ~226 GW queue (late 2025), roughly 73% of requests were data centers.
    Source: ERCOT Board Item 16.2, Dec 2, 2025
  3. ERCOT received 225 new large-load interconnection requests in 2025 through mid-November, versus 152 requests across all of 2022–2024 combined.
    Source: ERCOT Board Item 16.2, Dec 2, 2025
  4. Large-load MW demand seeking interconnection by 2030 grew by about 142 GW (about 270%) since the beginning of 2025 (per ERCOT’s December 2025 board materials).
    Source: ERCOT Board Item 16.2, Dec 2, 2025
  5. Q2 2025 alone saw 78 large-load applications totaling more than 70,000 MW in contemporaneous reporting on ERCOT filings.
    Source: Reporting on ERCOT System Planning update (e.g. Dave Friedman / ERCOT Dec 2025 materials)
  6. As of mid-2026, large users totaling more than 438,000 MW of proposed demand had entered ERCOT’s connection queue; nearly 90% of those requests were from data centers.
    Source: ERCOT, Trending Topic: New Batch Connection Process for Large Electricity Users, June 18, 2026
  7. Only a small fraction of late-2025 queue megawatts was operational and drawing power — on the order of about 1.8% in independent analysis of the 226 GW figure — so queue size is not the same as delivered load.
    Source: Independent analysis of ERCOT queue (e.g. Dave Friedman, Jan 2026); treat as interpretive, not ERCOT official utilization
  8. More than half of late-2025 large-load requests had not yet submitted enough information for ERCOT to begin review, per contemporaneous coverage of the queue.
    Source: CNBC coverage of ERCOT large-load flood, Dec 2025 (reporting ERCOT process status)

Large flexible load (LFL) capacity and energy

  1. EIA’s September 2024 STEO baseline assumed about 5,479 MW of LFL capacity approved at the time of writing, of which 1,570 MW had been approved over the prior 12 months.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  2. EIA baseline assumed ERCOT would have approved about 9,500 MW of LFL demand capacity by end of 2025 (+73% vs then-current approved levels in that STEO).
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  3. EIA expected LFL electricity demand of about 54 billion kWh in 2025, up almost 60% from expected 2024 LFL demand.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  4. That 54 billion kWh LFL forecast would represent about 10% of total forecast electricity consumption on the ERCOT grid in 2025 under the same STEO.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  5. Historically, LFL customers have consumed about 65% of their total approved capacity (EIA STEO assumption basis).
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  6. Early September 2024 ERCOT status materials indicated about 26,500 MW of LFL capacity had applied to become operational by end of 2025 (including projects without full plans and plans still under review).
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024 (citing ERCOT LFLTF status update)
  7. EIA low-growth scenario for 2025 held LFL capacity near ~6,500 MW operational (no additional beyond end-2024 expectation), implying about 37 billion kWh LFL consumption (−32% vs 54 TWh baseline).
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  8. EIA high-growth scenario assumed about 14,200 MW LFL operational by end of 2025, implying about 81 billion kWh LFL consumption (+50% vs baseline).
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  9. Baseline STEO overall ERCOT load: 464 billion kWh (2024) to 487 billion kWh (2025), about +5% year-over-year.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  10. Under EIA’s low- and high-LFL scenarios, overall ERCOT load growth in 2025 ranged from about +1% to about +10% holding other factors fixed.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024

Generation mix and prices (context for large-load growth)

  1. Natural gas accounted for about 45% of ERCOT generation in 2023.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  2. Coal accounted for about 14% of ERCOT generation in 2023.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  3. EIA baseline STEO forecast natural gas-fired generation in ERCOT falling about 5% from 2024 to 2025 (to about 198 billion kWh) as solar grows.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  4. EIA high-LFL scenario implied about 8% more natural gas-fired generation in 2025 than baseline (about 213 billion kWh).
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  5. EIA baseline forecast solar generation in ERCOT by the electric power sector growing about 54% in 2025 to about 67 billion kWh.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  6. About 3% of solar output in ERCOT was curtailed in 2023 (Potomac Economics State of the Market figure cited by EIA).
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024 (citing Potomac Economics 2023 SOM)
  7. EIA baseline forecast ERCOT North hub peak-hour wholesale prices averaging about $27/MWh in 2025 (about 22% lower than expected 2024 in that STEO).
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  8. EIA low-LFL scenario reduced forecasted 2025 wholesale prices about 11% vs baseline; high-LFL increased prices about 17% vs baseline, with the largest gaps in summer months.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024

Long-term load forecasts (handle with care)

  1. A preliminary long-term load path discussed in 2026 coverage put summer 2026 peak near ~112,000 MW once medium and large loads from TDSP submissions are included — still a forecast, not realized load.
    Source: Secondary reporting on ERCOT preliminary Long-Term Load Forecast materials, 2026
  2. One April 2026 forecast path discussed publicly showed potential peak demand climbing toward about 278,003 MW by 2029 and about 367,790 MW by 2032 — figures regulators later treated as almost certainly flawed.
    Source: Texas Tribune, July 29, 2026 (describing April ERCOT forecast and regulatory reaction)
  3. In July 2026 Senate Business & Commerce testimony, ERCOT’s CEO discussed statewide electric demand on the order of roughly 175,000 MW in six years as a planning conversation — still provisional while forecasting methods are reworked for large loads.
    Source: Texas Tribune, July 29, 2026
  4. After the April 2026 367,790 MW path drew skepticism, ERCOT withheld official forecasts while reworking the large-load forecasting system.
    Source: Texas Tribune, July 29, 2026
  5. TDSP-side submissions discussed in 2026 coverage included non-crypto data center large-load requests rising toward roughly 228,420 MW by 2032 in one aggregated request view — request pipeline, not committed build.
    Source: Secondary reporting on ERCOT/TDSP large-load submissions, 2026
  6. Oncor large-load submissions in one 2026 reporting slice rose from about 5,018 MW in 2026 to roughly 109,554 MW by 2032 — again, interconnection interest, not energized load.
    Source: Secondary reporting on TDSP large-load submissions, 2026
  7. Current projections discussed in 2026 comparative research anticipate nearly 51 GW of new grid-wide demand by 2030 in Texas planning conversations — a step-change versus historical 1–2% annual peak growth.
    Source: Belfer Center, Data Centers and Large-Scale Electric Growth, 2026
  8. Dallas County alone is projected in some 2026 analyses to host about 10 GW of large loads (customers ≥75 MW) by 2030.
    Source: Belfer Center, Data Centers and Large-Scale Electric Growth, 2026

Policy and process markers journalists ask about

  1. ERCOT established its LFL customer approval program in mid-2022 for loads expected at ≥75 MW peak, with voluntary curtailment participation in energy and ancillary service markets for some large loads.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024
  2. “Batch Zero,” the first group under ERCOT’s newer batch connection process for large users, was scheduled to begin in July 2026 under mid-2026 ERCOT materials.
    Source: ERCOT, Trending Topic: New Batch Connection Process for Large Electricity Users, June 18, 2026
  3. The Texas Energy Fund is designed to encourage development of new dispatchable generating capacity as one state response to rising large-load demand.
    Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 3, 2024 (citing Texas Energy Fund)
  4. 2026 legislative interim charges in both Texas chambers put data centers, grid reliability, and water on multiple committee agendas — a process signal that large-load growth is a session-prep issue, not only a utility ops issue.
    Source: JD Key Consulting analysis of 2026 House/Senate interim charges (see related insights)
  5. Chapter 313 school-district tax limitation agreements have expired as a tool; Chapter 312 local abatements remain a primary local incentive path for many large projects, intersecting with state property-tax politics.
    Source: JD Key Consulting, Property Tax & AI Infrastructure insight (policy synthesis)
  6. SB 17 (89th Legislature) restricts certain foreign entity ownership/control of Texas real estate, with particular attention near critical infrastructure — material for data center ownership and lease diligence.
    Source: Texas SB 17 (89R); JD Key Consulting TRAIGA/AI infrastructure coverage

Frequently asked

How much power do Texas data centers use today?

As of 2025, reporting grounded in ERCOT figures put Texas data center peak demand just under 8 GW, against a much larger system peak (on the order of the mid-80s to mid-90s GW depending on the peak date cited). Queue megawatts are not the same as energized load.

How big is the ERCOT large-load interconnection queue?

ERCOT board materials in December 2025 cited about 226 GW of large loads seeking interconnection (up from about 63 GW a year earlier), with roughly three-quarters data centers. Mid-2026 ERCOT materials on the new batch process cited more than 438,000 MW of proposed large-user demand in the connection queue, nearly 90% data centers. Most of that capacity is proposed, not operating.

What counts as a large flexible load in ERCOT?

ERCOT’s LFL framework (as summarized by EIA) covers facilities with expected peak demand of 75 MW or more. EIA’s 2024 STEO analysis used LFL approval and utilization assumptions to build near-term energy forecasts.

Should I cite the 367,790 MW by 2032 figure?

Only with a caveat. That April 2026 long-term path was publicly described by regulators as almost certainly flawed; ERCOT later reworked large-load forecasting. Prefer queue statistics, LFL program stats, and realized peak demand when writing for publication.

Need context, not just a number?

JD Key Consulting advises data center and energy clients on Texas legislative, PUCT, and local political risk — including how queue stats translate into session and agency strategy.

Contact James Dickey