$7B. Then 6 GW.
Red Oak lost $7B waiting on power. The Permian has 6 GW ready to pay.
Last month I wrote you about the Senate Finance committee hearing on the data center sales tax exemption. This week, House State Affairs took data centers and 765-kV lines, two of the interim charges on what will undoubtedly be key issues next session.
John Knight, Assistant Director of Economic Development for Red Oak in Ellis County, told the committee they lost $7 billion last year in projects they couldn't energize. Three campuses there add $11 billion in tax base. Another $30 billion sits in the pipeline. Every one of those paid the $6.5 million Oncor deposit and finished the studies. They still weren't in Batch Zero, ERCOT's first grouped large-load interconnection study.
"I've heard some people say we're Texas, they're coming here anyways. That's not the case. They can go anywhere. They're agnostic to that."
ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas put about 205 gigawatts as potentially eligible for Batch Zero, and about 65 GW on a clearer five-year path. The governor-directed audit pushed launch toward year-end. Security, site control, and equipment orders will drop projects that can't show them, so the published totals are ceilings.
Closed-loop cooling is already on the record. The Texas Water Development Board had about 29 percent of 341 site surveys back as of August 19.
Todd Staples of the Texas Oil and Gas Association put about 6 gigawatts of unmet Permian demand on the table, ready to sign up and pay. "A pause on the clock only stops the solution. It doesn't stop the clock on the problem." Temp power is running about 2.5 to 3 times grid cost.
PUC Chair Thomas Gleeson told members HB 5066 cut the Certificate of Convenience and Necessity clock to 180 days. It did not require 765 kV. Voltage was a commission decision after ERCOT analysis. ERCOT COO Woody Rickerson said pulling 765 would invalidate more than 600 transmission-company large-load studies already used in Batch Zero assumptions.
Of those 180 days, about 90 are left for parties.
Last month Senator Lois Kolkhorst told the industry they were doing a horrible job with neighboring property owners. "That is something y'all have to fix, otherwise you're gonna get a fight in every community you go to."
Susan Tatro learned on August 3 of a 665-acre site across from her 4-acre place, the third data center within five miles. Myra Alaniz put a 550-acre site 100 feet from a school. Erath County Judge Brandon Huckabee said Oncor added segment C8 after the public meeting, and the newly affected landowners didn't get a new one. Chair Ken King said State Affairs will not move a landowner-blind process next session.
Rick Thompson of the County Judges and Commissioners Association of Texas: "Counties are not against data centers. What we're looking for is good neighbors, and what we want to do is have some guardrails and authority."
QTS sat about 150 people in Briscoe County the Thursday before the hearing. They came in worried about water. Ryan Kuithe said they left surprised: one building, about as much water as five homes.
The local fights on that dais started as a neighbor who found out late, a school with no buffer, or a route added after the meeting. Build the support you'll need before you have to ask for it.
What I'd Do This Week
Build the local support before you file. Town halls, neighbor notice, buffers from schools, and a new meeting when the route changes. That's cheap at design and expensive once a county has turned.
Treat the audit as the filter. If you hold a large-load spot, know today whether you can show security, site control, and equipment orders.
File the water survey. TWDB is still missing most of the 341. A blank return is now a fact members will cite.
Model 12 coincident peaks and a 20-year minimum billing demand at 100 percent of requested capacity. That's the rate design the Office of Public Utility Counsel is backing, so run your bill on it.
The long versions, with the quotes and the sources:
- Red Oak Lost $7B Waiting on Power. Batch Zero Still Holds 205 GW.
- 6 GW of Permian Demand Is Ready to Pay. A Pause Only Stops the Solution.
Source documents:
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